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Let me say loud and clear that card counting is hard
and is not as rewarding as television and the movies make it out
to be. If it were an easy way to make money everyone would be
doing it.
If you do not know the basic strategy trying to count
cards is highly ill-advised. Experienced card counters still play
by the basic strategy the great majority of the time. There can
be no short cut around learning the basic strategy, those who
attempt card counting without a firm foundation in the basic strategy
are making a big mistake.
To be a successful counter you have to be able to
count down a deck fast and memorize large tables of numbers as
well as make it look like you're just a casual player. Furthermore,
with today's rules, a realistic advantage the counter will have
is only 0.5% to 1.5%. You will not win money slowly and gradually
but your bankroll will go up and down like a roller coaster in
the short run. Only in the long run over hundreds of hours of
playing can you count on winning.
The underlying principle behind card counting is
that a deck rich is tens and aces is good for the player, a deck
rich in small cards is good for the dealer. The reason for this
is complicated but to give just two examples: (1) Blackjacks are
more common in ten and ace rich decks, which benefit the player
more than the dealer. (2) The probability of busting a stiff hand
is greater. The dealer is forced to hit a stiff hand and the player
is not.
To gauge the richness of the deck in good cards the
player will keep track of the cards the are already played. Strategies
vary but all assign a point value to each card. For example the
Ken Uston's Plus/Minus strategy assigns a value of +1 to 3, 4,
5, 6 and 7, and -1 to tens and aces. Everything else is 0, or
neutral. At the beginning of a deck or shoe the count is 0. Then
the counter constantly adds and subtracts from the count according
to the cards played. This running total is called the "running
count." A positive count means that a disproportional number
of small cards have already been played which means the deck is
rich in large cards. To determine the "true count" divide
the running count by the number of decks left to be played, or
in some strategies the number of half decks. This will tell you
the relative richness of the deck in good cards.
The true count is used in two ways, to determine
how much to bet and how to play your hand. Unless it is obvious
every situation has a line in which you should play one way if
the count is above the line and another if below. For example
a 12 against a 6 may dictate that you stand if the true count
is +1 or greater and hit if the true count is less than +1. The
counter will also bet more when the deck is rich in good cards.
A problem arises when it comes to treating aces.
The player should bet more when the deck is rich in aces since
they add to the probability of getting a blackjack. However, when
it comes to playing your hand the number of aces left is not nearly
as important as the number of tens, so it is desirable, but not
necessary, to distinguish between tens and aces. Some card counting
strategies keep a side count of aces. In the Hi-Opt I and Revere
Plus/Minus aces are counted separately and only considered when
making the wager. This is a more accurate and powerful way to
play than assigning a negative value to aces and not keeping a
side count, as some strategies do. Yet many people feel that for
the beginner it is too confusing to keep two counts. A player
is more likely to make mistakes keeping two counts and that costs
money. The efficiency of a strategy that does not keep a side
count of aces is only modestly less but you likely will gain more
from fewer mistakes made. Different experts fall in various places
in the spectrum in terms of what to recommend for the beginner.
The Zen Count takes the middle ground and gives aces a value of
-1 and tens -2. Personally I have tried both and would recommend
against a count that requires a side count of aces to a person
ready to take up card counting. The Uston Advanced Plus/Minus
is a good strategy that does not involve an ace side count and
can be found in the bookMillion Dollar Blackjack. How well
you know a counting strategy is much more important that which
strategy you know.
Legally speaking the player may play blackjack any
way he wants without cheating or using a computer, and the casinos
may do anything from making conditions unfavorable to barring
in an effort to stop anyone who they deem has an advantage over
the game. Much of the challenge of card counting is avoiding suspicion
that you are anything but a normal non-counting player. The most
obvious indication that somebody is counting is that they make
a substantial increase in bet size after a lot of small cards
leave the table. Although the greater the factor by which you
can increase your bet the greater your odds of winning, more than
doubling your last bet is a fast way to arouse "heat"
from the dealer and pit boss. Usually when casinos do realize
you are counting they will either shuffle the cards whenever you
increase your bet, essentially removing any advantage, or ask
you to leave.
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