Trying to get an edge and keep your money in Caribbean Poker
(a.k.a. Caribbean Stud) is no small feat. The house has a solid edge backed
up by a couple rules that will prove frustrating if you play for very
long or for serious money.
The Truth of the Game
Despite its name, Caribbean Poker is a table game, more akin
to Blackjack than Poker. But don't think that Caribbean provides the same
opportunities for the shrewd player that Blackjack does, 'cause it most
certainly does not. The house has a solid 5.2% edge over the player and
that's close to the worst odds you'll find in the casino. As to its relation
to Poker, the only thing they have in common is that Caribbean uses the
Poker hands for scoring.
There are only three decisions a player needs to make in
Caribbean Poker. The first is how much to bet. The second is whether to
Raise or Fold after the dealer's one-card flop. And the third is whether
take the Side (a.k.a. Progressive) Bet.
Betting
There are a few factors in this game that recommend the smart
player place small bets. The first is the house edge which there is simply
no getting around and in the long run that means you're going to lose
money. Better to lose small than big, no? The second is that most Caribbean
tables limit the payout. You may bet $100 a hand and Raise your $200 and
think you've hit a $6,000 jackpot when you come up with 4-of-a-Kind with
its 20-1 payout. But if the Maximum Payout at your table is $5,000 then
that's all you're going to get. So know your table's Max and bet accordingly.
Basic Strategy
Simply put, the basic strategy in Caribbean Poker is to Raise
on A-K-J-8-3 or better and Fold otherwise. That is called the "beacon
hand" and it's the lowest break-even hand in the game. While this
won't make you a long-term winner, it will help slow your losses. It's
the paying hands, a pair or better, that will net you the good wins. Trouble
is that the dealer must qualify (A-K) in order for you to get the real
payoffs and those opportunities are annoyingly infrequent in Caribbean
Poker. More on this later.
If you've spent any time looking around, you'll know that
there are many varieties and variations of this strategy. Using them will
help you shave the house edge by teeny amounts, but they're hardly worth
the effort. Even if you played the mathematically optimal strategy you'd
only improve over the basic strategy by a few tenths of a point. Is it
worth it? On paper maybe, but the bottom line is that you're playing a
losing game so getting deep into it in order to shave a couple tenths
is an effort of dubious worth.
Side Bets
In most of the Caribbean Poker games I've played online there's
a little meter running showing you the amount of cash in the Progressive
Pot. The idea is that for a $1 Side Bet you'll have a crack at some or
all of that Pot if you win a hand with a Flush or better. Guess what,
it's a sucker bet with the house edge around 22% or more. The gurus say
don't do it, and if you must do it, wait until the Pot is $150,000 or
better. Don't worry, you'll be losing your money fast enough in Caribbean
Poker to have any need to speed up the process by placing Side Bets.
The Killer in Caribbean Poker
In my opinion there is one rule in Caribbean Poker that needs
very close examination by the would-be player. The fact that the dealer
must qualify with an A-K or better before the player gets a proper payout
on a winning hand hangs over the game like a black cloud. Let's dream
a little and assume that every hand you get beats the dealer. Only 54%
of the time will the dealer qualify and that means that 46% of the time
you'll only get paid for your Ante bet at 1-1 no matter how good your
cards are. Let's make this a little clearer with examples taken from recent
play experiences of mine.
Let's say you're playing $10 a hand, you pull a Pair of 4's
, and Raise. If the dealer qualifies with an A-K, you win and get paid
out at the 1-1 odds on both the Ante and the Raise, pulling back $30 on
the hand. But if the dealer failed to qualify you only get paid on your
Ante at 1-1. No big deal you say? Let's take another look.
Same $10 hand but you pull Four-of-a-Kind and Raise. Needless
to say, in real Poker this hand would probably set you up for a serious
win. Even in Caribbean you'll rake back $410 because of the 20-1 payout
on Four-of-a-Kind, but if and only if the dealer qualifies. But if the
dealer doesn't qualify (again, 46% of the time) do you know what you win?
$10 because of the 1-1 Ante Payout, and that's it. It could've been a
Royal Flush and all you'd get is that $10. "Heads I win, Tails you
lose" is what this sounds like to me.
Where's the Beef?
By now you've probably gathered that I'm not much of a Caribbean
Poker fan. In fact, I pretty much agree with the experts when they say
it's a mindless game with terrible odds. The question then is why is it
popular at all? I think the answer lies somewhere in the way the game
plays. You're sitting there, losing most of the time and on the rare occasion
when you get a good hand and the dealer has qualified, you get a nice
payout. You anted $10, using the Four-of-a-Kind example above, and pulled
back $410. Not bad, and you kind of want to bet again, right?
I think this follows what I call The Pain Rule, named after
what an old friend of mine said when I asked him what he liked about long-distance
running. "It feels so good to stop". You feel so relieved when
the pain is over that you think you actually enjoyed doing the thing in
the first place. In Caribbean you lose so often, or rather the dealer
failed to qualify so you could win, that it feels great when you actually
do rake in a real payoff. Pick your poison.
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